ALICE Z. XU

The Politics of pessimism: Turning Aspirational voters into populists

[With Torben Iversen] Higher-educated workers usually support mainstream parties. Lower-educated workers may do the same when enough opportunities exist for them or their children to improve their future economic standing. These “aspirational voters” can become anti-establishment populist voters, however, when their economic outlook dims. Rightwing populist voters are, we suggest, disappointed aspirational voters. We test this argument on US data where the sudden changes in economic outlook due to the coronavirus and associated lockdowns created a sharp rise in pessimism among voters at high risk of losing their jobs. Using a staggered difference-in-differences event study approach, we estimate the causal effect of lockdowns on Trump approval when employment downsizing risks are high and when it is difficult to move labor online. We find that lockdowns increase support for Trump only in states with high risk of downsizing. This is how a public health crisis has turned into a moment of heightened partisan polarization.